Dry start to the week, a wet Wednesday in the north, then calmer

Ticino and the Italian Alps stay dry

This is where the dirt is best and the weather kindest. Monte Bar, Monte Lema and Monte Tamaro sit in hero dirt now, as do Val di Sole, Bormio, Kronplatz, Pinzolo and Finale Ligure. Monday and Tuesday are dry everywhere here.

Monday is windy on the ridges: gusts near 90 km/h on Monte Tamaro and above 60 km/h at Arosio and Falcade. Tuesday is calm. Wednesday and Thursday look mostly dry, with only a slight chance of a light shower around Bormio or Madonna di Campiglio. Val di Sole and Kronplatz drain faster than most of our parks, so any drizzle will barely register.

Carinthia, Slovenia and the Engadine hold up

Trailcenter Ossiacher See and Gerlitzen are in hero dirt and look dry through Thursday, as does Petzen. Maribor Pohorje is in good shape and drains quickly, so a stray shower late in the week should not hurt.

In southern Graubünden, Poschiavo and St Moritz are prime and stay dry, with Scuol close behind. Mornings are frosty at St Moritz early in the week, so start later.

A wet band across the north on Wednesday

Central and northern Switzerland is mostly wet now, and the two dry days will only partly help before rain looks likely on Wednesday. The wettest spots look to be Rigi massiv, Höhoren Wildspitz, Zug and Zürich Uetliberg. Engelberg-Titlis and Flumserberg hold water, so they will stay soft longer; Zug and Altdorf drain faster and should recover sooner once Thursday turns dry.

Western Austria sees the same pattern: Lech Warth Zürs and Brandnertal look wettest on Wednesday. In Salzburg, Saalbach and Kitzbühel likely catch showers too, while Obergurgl-Hochgurgl stays the best bet in Tyrol, if cold.

Muddy west gets a chance to dry

Chamonix, Champéry, Morgins and Crans-Montana are muddy now. Monday and Tuesday are dry and Tuesday is mild, which helps, and Wednesday looks mostly dry in the Valais. Crans-Montana drains well and should improve; Champéry and Morgins hold water and sit in the shade, so expect them to stay soft.

Further south in France, Les Orres is already in hero dirt and dry all week. Serre Chevalier and Les 2 Alpes are wet now but drain faster than almost any of our parks and get sun, so they should firm up through the week. Zermatt is similar.

Germany stays damp and breezy

Willingen, Winterberg and Geißkopf are wet. Monday brings light showers and strong gusts, up to around 65 km/h at Geißkopf. Tuesday is dry, then Wednesday looks showery again, so little improvement is likely before Thursday.

Further afield

On La Palma, La Palma South is dry and La Palma East is in hero dirt, both with highs in the mid-20s all week.

Whistler Mountain is variable and gets around 9 mm of rain on Tuesday, with more likely Wednesday as the freezing level drops sharply; Thursday looks cold. New Zealand's Rocky Mountain is prime now, but Monday brings around 30 mm and gusts over 100 km/h, and this ground holds water, so it will stay soft afterwards.