For Monday 19 to Thursday 22 October
Ride Monday and Tuesday before a wet Wednesday sweeps the Alps
Monday and Tuesday look dry and mild across Austria, Graubünden, central Switzerland, the Dolomites and Germany, with hero dirt at most parks. Rain looks likely almost everywhere in the Alps on Wednesday, and heavy in the Italian south. Ticino, Finale and the French Alps are already wet and take more rain early in the week. Thursday looks drier in the west but stays unsettled in eastern Austria.
Austria and Graubünden: two good days
Monday and Tuesday are dry here, highs in the mid to high teens. Bikepark Schladming and Serfaus-Fiss-Ladis sit at the top of hero dirt, with Saalbach Hinterglemm, Lenzerheide, Davos Klosters and Thusis close behind. Bikepark Innsbruck is already dry, so expect it a little loose. Tuesday turns gusty in places, around 45 km/h at Innsbruck and Lenzerheide.
Wednesday looks like a proper soaking. Chur drains faster than most of our parks and should bounce back soonest; Innsbruck dries slowly and will stay soft longer. In eastern Austria, Gerlitzen and Ossiacher See look wet again on Thursday, so don't count on a quick recovery there.
Central Switzerland and Germany: dry start
Monday and Tuesday are dry at Pilatus, Stans, Zug, Flumserberg and Hoch Ybrig, all in hero dirt. Then a wet Wednesday is likely. Zug recovers well; Grindelwald-Wengen, Mürren and Thun hold water and will stay muddy into Thursday.
In Germany, Willingen, Winterberg and Geißkopf are dry Monday with only a millimetre or so Tuesday, but cool and windy, gusts in the 40s. Wednesday looks wet and Thursday very windy at Geißkopf.
Dolomites and Trentino: Monday, then a deluge
Monday is dry across Kronplatz, Sellaronda, Cortina and Reschen. Tuesday stays mostly dry in the Dolomites, while Trentino picks up a few millimetres. Wednesday looks heavy here, especially around Pinzolo, Paganella, Val di Sole and Cortina. Val di Sole and Kronplatz drain well; Cortina and Cinque Torri hold water and will need longer.
Ticino, Finale and the upper Valais: stay away
Every Ticino park is wet now and rain builds from a few millimetres Monday to around 20-35 mm Tuesday, with Wednesday looking worse still. Finale Ligure takes around 65 mm on Tuesday. It drains very fast, so Thursday may be a surprise.
Saas-Grund gets around 6 mm Monday and over 20 mm Tuesday, and Saas-Fee dries slowly. Zermatt stays fine Monday and is among our quickest to dry.
French Alps and western Switzerland: already soft
Les Gets, Morzine and La Clusaz are wet now and add around 4-6 mm Tuesday. Les Orres and Serre Chevalier take around 30 mm Tuesday, but both drain exceptionally fast and Thursday looks dry there. Champéry and Morgins hold water and get little sun, so they will stay soft. Verbier and Crans-Montana are good on Monday.
Slovenia and further afield
Maribor Pohorje is dry and warm Monday and Tuesday, with only light rain likely later; it drains fast. La Palma South stays dry all week, while La Palma West gets around 12 mm Tuesday and shrugs it off. Whistler is hero dirt and dry through Wednesday. Rocky Mountain is dry but windy, with strong gusts likely by Thursday.
Our call
Ride Monday or Tuesday in Austria, Graubünden or the Dolomites: Bikepark Schladming, Serfaus-Fiss-Ladis, Chur and Kronplatz are the picks. After Wednesday, the fast-draining parks like Chur and Val di Sole should come back first.