For Monday 12 to Thursday 15 October
Dry south and west all week, while a wet band crosses the northern Alps
Monday is dry across almost all of our Alpine parks, with rain only in the far east, in Carinthia, Slovenia and the eastern Dolomites. Tuesday brings showers along the northern Swiss Alps and into western Austria, and Wednesday looks wet for much of Austria. Ticino, Valais, the French Alps and most of the Italian Alps stay dry throughout, and Thursday looks dry and mild almost everywhere.
Ticino, Valais and France stay dry
Ticino has the best ground we track and essentially no rain all week. Monte Bar is in the dry band at 73, with Ascona, Monte Lema, Monte Tamaro and Airolo on hero dirt and highs near 20 C midweek.
Valais tells the same story. Zermatt is dry at 74 and drains faster than most of our parks, while Saas-Grund, Saas-Fee, Verbier, Aletsch Arena and Bellwald see no more than a trace.
In the French Alps, Serre Chevalier is dry at 77, one of the sunniest, fastest-drying parks we have, with no rain but gusts around 40 km/h on Tuesday. Les 2 Alpes and Tignes/Val d'Isère stay rain-free, Les Gets, Morzine and Châtel get only a trace. Lac Blanc is the exception, with around 3 to 4 mm on Tuesday and strong gusts.
Italian Alps settle after a damp start
Monday brings around 4 mm to Falcade - Passo San Pellegrino and a little to Cortina and Cinque Torri, both variable now. From Tuesday it turns dry, though Falcade looks windy later in the week.
Elsewhere the week is settled. Breuil-Cervinia is dry at 77, and Pontedilegno - Tonale, Val di Sole, Kronplatz, Bormio and Pinzolo sit near the top of hero dirt with no meaningful rain. Finale Ligure stays dry but gusty, around 50 km/h, on Monday and Tuesday.
A wet Tuesday along the northern Swiss Alps
Tuesday's rain falls on the northern side of the Swiss Alps: around 9 mm at Grindelwald-First, around 7 to 8 mm at Grindelwald-Wengen, Mürren-Schilthorn, Meiringen Hasliberg and Engelberg-Titlis, and around 6 mm at Altdorf. Rain chances are under 20%, so showers may hit some valleys and miss others.
Mürren, Wengen and First hold water longer than almost any park we track, and more showers look likely on Wednesday, so expect them to stay soft. Altdorf, Stans and Zug drain faster and should recover sooner. Flumserberg, already variable at 53, looks wetter on Wednesday.
In Graubünden, Disentis Sedrun gets around 7 mm Tuesday but dries fast; Davos Klosters takes around 6 mm with more likely Wednesday. Poschiavo, at 68, stays dry all week.
Austria wet midweek, the east drying
Western Austria gets rain Tuesday and likely again Wednesday. Ischgl - Samnaun takes around 6 mm Tuesday and Brandnertal around 5 mm; Brandnertal holds water, so it will stay soft. Sölden, best in the region at 67, gets around 3 mm.
Salzburg and Styria are dry Monday and Tuesday, the window for Saalbach, Schladming and Leogang. Wednesday looks properly wet there, and Leogang holds water, so it will likely be slow to recover.
Today's rain leaves Gerlitzen at 23, Ossiacher See at 34 and Maribor Pohorje at 20, all wet. Tuesday is dry, and Ossiacher See and Maribor drain faster than most of our parks, so they should come back over the following days.
Germany, La Palma and Whistler
German parks see only around a millimetre of rain, but gusts top 40 km/h at Willingen and Winterberg Tuesday and Wednesday, and look near 50 km/h at Geißkopf Wednesday.
La Palma stays dry and hot, high 20s at La Palma South, on ground that drains faster than almost anywhere. Whistler is on hero dirt at 71; Wednesday looks wet before a dry, milder Thursday.
Our call
Ride Monday or Tuesday in Valais, Ticino or the French and Italian Alps, where the ground is prime and stays that way. Thursday looks like the best day almost everywhere, though the Bernese Oberland and Leogang will likely still be soft.