For Saturday 3 and Sunday 4 October
Dry south and east for the weekend, rain around Champéry and Morzine
The weekend splits cleanly. The Italian Alps, Ticino, Graubünden, Austria and Slovenia stay dry on both days, with plenty of parks sitting in hero dirt. The wet corner is the Chablais and the northern French Alps, where Saturday brings a soaking around Champéry and Sunday spreads rain towards Morzine and Châtel. Central Switzerland sits in between, with light showers and mixed ground.
The south and east stay dry
From the Dolomites to Slovenia, there is essentially no rain in the forecast for Saturday or Sunday, with highs mostly around 17 to 22°C. Val di Sole, Pontedilegno - Tonale and Reschen Pass all sit at the top of the hero dirt band, and Kronplatz is close behind. Kronplatz and Val di Sole shed water better than most of our parks, so they are in no danger of going soft.
The firmest ground is at Cortina d'Ampezzo, Bikepark Maribor Pohorje, Bikepark Schladming and Bike Republic Sölden, all in the dry band. Maribor dries out faster than almost anywhere we track. Both Livigno parks, including Mottolino, hold water more than nearly all others, but with no rain coming that does not matter this weekend.
Ticino and Graubünden, settled and warm
Ticino stays dry, with at most a trace on Sunday. Monte Bar is dry and drains quickly, while Monte Tamaro is in hero dirt. Airolo is still variable but has a calm weekend to firm up.
In Graubünden, Chur Alpenbikepark is dry and warm, up to around 24°C, though Saturday gusts reach about 34 km/h. Poschiavo, Thusis, Lenzerheide and Davos Klosters are all hero dirt with little or no rain. St Moritz is the odd one out, still wet despite a dry forecast, and nights there drop to around 4°C.
Central Switzerland, light showers
Expect scattered light rain here, mostly 1 to 4 mm. Flumserberg is dry now but picks up around 4 mm on Saturday and a little more on Sunday. Meiringen Hasliberg, Andermatt and Mürren-Schilthorn each get around 3 mm on Sunday, so Saturday is the better day there.
The Valais side holds up best: Aletsch Arena, Bellwald and Saas-Fee are hero dirt with only a trace of rain, and Aletsch and Bellwald drain well. Near the cities, Zürich Uetliberg, Pilatus and Höhoren Wildspitz remain wet, though Uetliberg dries fast and a mostly dry weekend should help.
A wet corner in the Chablais and northern French Alps
This is where to avoid. Champéry takes around 32 mm on Saturday and another 5 mm on Sunday, and Morgins gets around 9 mm then 5 mm. Both are already wet.
Across the border, Châtel sees around 6 mm Saturday and nearly 10 mm Sunday. Morzine and Les Gets turn wetter on Sunday with around 7 mm and 4 mm, and Morzine holds water more than most parks, so it will stay soft. Lac Blanc gets around 9 mm on Sunday with gusts near 42 km/h.
Southern French Alps clear for Sunday
Further south the pattern is reversed. Serre Chevalier and Les 2 Alpes catch 3 to 5 mm on Saturday, then dry out on Sunday. Both drain quickly and sit on sunny slopes, Serre Chevalier among the fastest of all, so Sunday should ride well. Les Orres and Tignes/Val d'Isère stay in hero dirt with little or no rain.
Germany and further afield
Bikepark Geißkopf is hero dirt and dry both days, though gusts reach about 31 km/h on Saturday. Winterberg and Willingen remain wet; rain is light, but both dry slowly on shady slopes.
On La Palma, La Palma South is dry but windy, with gusts near 55 km/h. La Palma East gets around 6 mm on Saturday but drains fast. In Canada, Whistler Mountain is hero dirt with a dry, mild weekend.
Our call
Head south and east this weekend: Val di Sole, Kronplatz, Tonale, Ticino and Graubünden offer dry skies and hero dirt on both days. Avoid the Chablais and the Morzine area, which only get wetter.